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Extortion Level: Turkish – GSRAY Capital Increase

After what seems to be the longest block in my blogging career so far (in which I did little more than continuing to explore data science and business analytics realms as a full-time consultant), I would like to give an account of one of the latest happenings in the major Turkish exchange; Istanbul Securities Exchange (IMKB).

The Turkish league leader and former UEFA cup holder Galatasaray’s commercial arm, Galatasaray Sportif have decided to inject capital into the company’s balance sheet via an unheard of method: 9900% share capital increase.

Share capital increase in the Turkish stock market, like many others, is through preemption rights that the stockholder bears. In a normal capital increase, of namely 100%, the issuer calls for capital for new capital for one share, priced at the nominal value of the stock, and the existing stockholders have priority of purchase. If the stockholders cannot provide capital for the increase, they are entitled to resell their preemption rights at the stock market, and their ownership is automatically diluted.

All in all, this method is designed to preserve the value for each stockholder while increasing market cap, and usually because cash is horded into the issuer, it ends up with better fundamentals and the result is slightly favorable on the price.

Now, everything is fine and looks fine for GSRAY. However what happens when there is a 9900% capital increase, and why would the results be catastrophic? Here’s the mechanic that currently the Turkish regulator is overlooking and will cost hundreds of GSRAY fans and stockholders:

* %9900 capital increase means 99 preemptions rights at nominal value (TRY1.00) for one share of GSRAY (TRY162.00). So in practicality, the issuer is calling for TRY99 for each TRY162 stock held. For a share like Galatasaray where many small cap investors (theoretically fans) hold stake, this kind of increase in position is both unprecedented risk and probably many stockholders lack the cash to exercise preemption.
* The above conclusion almost immediately leads to another one, the preemption rights on the market will be plentiful, in fact so plentiful that they will probably be traded below the theoretical price, drawing down the weighted average cost of preemption and resulting in a lower than expected price on the new shares.
* Lastly, where the real trickery comes in… The issuer agrees to buy back the preemption rights that aren’t exercised at the market -however- at nominal value of TRY1.00. So for the mass exodus of preemption rights that are probably not going to find buyers, the company is going to profit yet another time, preserving some percentage over its ownership as well. But this operation will hamper down the new market price yet a second time, a second mighty blow to the innocent stockholder.

This is stock market sorcery.

The trickery of GSRAY has already been priced at the market by what I think is a mixture of large and small cap investors, and the price of the stock has already come down by nearly 10%. However I can hardly think the loss will be at an end for those who hold stake…

I’m thrilled to see that the regulator (SPK) whose motto is to protect the small cap investor is at the same end of the table with Galatasaray Sportif, who will have access to some of the cheapest capital in years.

(Although I am a supporter and thus biased to say so, I think a much more noble way of attracting funds is what Fenerbahçe did… Issuing a company bond with a whopping 300bp over benchmark rate and limiting the purchase mostly to real persons.)

Posted in Finance / Trading, Politics.

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By canerturkmen – March 7, 2012

after the block

Writer’s block is as cruel as always. But no matter, we still have motivation to go on.

(I just read in a new popular Turkish novel that Hemingway tackled the block by pausing to write at the most exciting spots, shame that doesn’t apply for blogging)

So things I did in the meanwhile include;
* Developing a script for scraping the entire database of IMDb. I just don’t know what to do with the gigabytes of data now, so if anyone’s interested in trying to develop a descriptive model from it; be my guest let’s have a shot together.
* Trying to develop a trading system, and furthermore a trading system simulator for forex and commodity markets. I’m at early stages I must say, my next steps include trying to develop a predictive model for trading.
* Trying to develop a churn prediction model for my client, a telco. Actually I’ve been doing this double-time for a month now.
* I’m now officially diseased, my coughs haven’t gone away for 2-3 months, and no doctor has been able to put together a valid case. So my next destinations will be Dr House, the witch doctors in Africa, and a preacher in Turkey.

So that’s the update, this is the bonus. Dean Bubley has put together a great piece on pricing strategies in telco, for those telco freaks out there. I initially wanted to make slides from it but couldn’t find the motivation. So enjoy..

Posted in Business.

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By canerturkmen – April 13, 2011

the masked magician

Growing up, one of the biggest advantages of learning to speak English at an early age was watching satellite TV from all over the world. It is thus I managed to tune into the masked magician, ‘revealing magic’s biggest secrets’, and with the tagline ‘the show that magicians around the world, don’t want you to see..’

For those of you that wonder, the Masked Magician revealed the secrets behind some of the world’s finest tricks on TV (chipping into David Copperfield’s fame) and also some street tricks and card tricks so the layman could also go about showing off to their entourage.

The Masked Magician’s business model is simple, and I’m sure there is a very good b-school name for it I don’t yet know. He levels the playing field, provides access to information and skills (information that bears quite high costs for normal people to access) for free. This immediately destroys value harvested by tens of agents that reap profit on the scarce knowledge / skills; however creates great value for the ‘revealer’.

Same goes for WordPress and Joomla, before which a good CMS meant dollars. Joomla is Joomla because it gave everyone with basic computer skills the toolbox to create a website; destroyed value for hundreds of  website makers, and CMSes that came at a cost.

So a simple business idea is;  (1) become really good at something (2) become even better to find a way to give everyone access to your skills and knowledge, free of charge. And buy yourself a beer with the affiliate / ad / consulting income.

Here is a sneak-peek into the world of the Masked Magician.

Posted in Business, Life.

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By canerturkmen – March 3, 2011

zen habits

Let me guess,

At one point or the other during your life you came to terms with yourself. You found peace, you found a formula that launched you forward, put a constant smile on your face, alleviated the feelings of fear, pain, doubt. You had a book or person that gave you this most powerful weapon you had in life. You were one, you were in the present and you were happy. You even created small miracles, brought together pages of success.

But then you found it was all too short. It faded. You forgot, and this piece of golden knowledge you had, the secret if you will, was the easiest thing to lose. You slumped back and your daily efforts were concentrated once more around fighting off your Outlook account or trying to heal an illness with heaps of medicine, succumbing to your presence being divided between people, places, the past and a fearful future. Maybe you hit a rough patch, and you found yourself once more on the downward spiral.

But the thinnest stream of consciousness in you urged you to go back to the source, take the reins of your soul. But that book was now too thick for you to read; that person was too far to call. You needed a place to start, but couldn’t find it. You went back to playing the tell-tale tunes of your old life and perhaps never noticed it.

Well I found that place to start for you: Zen Habits

It’s downright brilliant.

Posted in Uncategorized.

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By canerturkmen – February 24, 2011

the turkish daily

I hope to be able to offer one good chart today. I’m not doing anything scientific and how I classified Turkish newspapers as pro-government, neutral and independent are quite intuitive to widespread perception. Before the chart, a few fun facts;

# The daily newspaper, well known for its pro-government fundamentalist stance: Zaman’s sell-out is nearly two times that of Hurriyet, the flagship publication of the Dogan Media Group. (It’s another fun fact here that Dogan Media Group has coincidentally been subjected to a tax fine by the government, amounting to the highest fine ever given to a media group. in the world.)

# Fotomaç, the sports/celebrity tabloid sells about 3 times more than Cumhuriyet, an independent left-wing publication where the government’s least favorite commentators take refuge.

Here’s how things worked out. I don’t think any explanation is needed:

Posted in Politics.

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By canerturkmen – February 15, 2011

value for money

In this analysis I will propose the following metric: how happy it makes me / (dollar value of the commodity/service) So for;

a = the free chocolate bar I get off the vending machine : a lot / 30 cents

b = 50 bucks I make off writing freelance code : quite a lot / 50 dollars

c = money I can make off the stock market : quite a lot / a nice amount

d = my job : depends / again a relatively nice amount

so even though the metric I proposed fluctuates through time, a > b > c > d  generally holds.

I really have to rethink how to align with that.

Posted in Life.

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By canerturkmen – February 11, 2011

ict and egypt

Since my first look at their site, I’ve been an avid reader of Consultant Value Added, the blog of a group of Spanish telco consultants. Their posts are usually loaded with insight, and their latest post on how ICT tools proved key in the recent happenings is no different. Here are some trivia:

- ICT tools were used to organize most of the demonstrations. The Egyptian government responded by a ban on Twitter, Facebook and lastly a ban on all internet access (for five days)

- The government also pumped SMSs through Vodafone Egypt (in which the government owns a nice stake), to about 65mn mobile subscribers in the country, telling them to calm down.

- In a country where 75% of the population receives 3G broadband coverage, and internet penetration is around the 40% mark (this I must say is quite similar to Turkey); banning the internet must’ve been quite a move.

- It’s estimated that ban on internet services has a direct cost of $5mn on the economy.  However analysts warn this does not include indirect costs levied on the economy such as impact on businesses that rely on infrastructure.

Hmm.. I’m imagining that figure must be a couple of orders of magnitude more. So there is the importance of ICT I guess. I think it would also be safe to say that taking networks offline for five days would translate into crisis  for mobile operators whose revenues are driven by traffic, but costs are mostly fixed around g&a and maintenance.

I suggest you to take a look at Consultant Value Added coverage…

Posted in Business, Politics.

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By canerturkmen – February 9, 2011

invictus

Thanks to the in-flight entertainment system of Turkish Airlines, I had a chance to see one of the most inspirational stories of my life, that of Invictus.

As people who have seen the film would know, Invictus tells the epic story of how Nelson Mandela and Francois Pienaar; the newly elected president of South Africa and the captain of the SA Rugby team (or the Springboks) cooperated in bringing together (at least for a few days perhaps) the rainbow nation.

My immediate reaction upon seeing the film, after living for six months in South Africa was “no way”. There was no way blacks would cheer for the Bokke, that Mandela would really be such an inspiring character, that a team of Afrikaaners would go to townships to teach black kids rugby. But hear it from the movie critic David Ansen: “Yet the lapses fade in the face of such a soul-stirring story – one that would be hard to believe if it were fiction. The wonder of Invictus is that it actually went down this way.”

If you’re in need of remembering how forgiving, thankfulness, tolerance can help ease our own lives; and how true heroes might indeed exist; I highly recommend seeing it. But I also recommend familiarizing yourself with the concepts of Apartheid and what rugby means to South Africans beforehand. I will leave you with the last verse of Invictus, one that when firmly held on to, got Nelson Mandela from 20 years in Robben Island to holding office as one of the most inspirational figures of the 20th century:

“It matters not how strait the gate,
How charged with punishments the scroll.
I am the master of my fate:
I am the captain of my soul.”

Posted in Life.

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By canerturkmen – February 4, 2011

hot dog

In Turkey you might have caught me saying “People are hungry in Africa” upon seeing a friend devour a double portion of kebabs. After seeing the standard hot dog in our client’s cafeteria (in Africa) today, I was speechless

Posted in Life.

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By canerturkmen – January 31, 2011

egypt

This won’t be about politics. My sympathies for all people who lost their lives in the events. I’m still following the tweets of horror with great preoccupation.

Just to broaden the horizons for some of my trading friends out there. This is what can happen to your stock market on a crappy day:

Source: Abnormal Returns

Posted in Uncategorized.

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By canerturkmen – January 30, 2011